"The worst of all outcomes is the current default: the level of Europe's contribution to the world will be decided by America." – Graham Cookson, Economist
Welcome to the 5th and final episode of "Europe's Access Dilemma", the Pharma Minds mini-series on MFN and access to innovation in Europe. Pay more. Wait longer. Or change the model.
Europe wants three things at once: medicines people can afford, fast access to new drugs, and a strong pharma industry. Is that still possible?
My guest is Graham Cookson, Chief Executive of the Office of Health Economics (OHE) in London. He is an econometrician who works on healthcare efficiency, drug pricing and reimbursement. He starts with Germany, the country at the center of MFN.
What you will learn in this episode:
- Germany's trilemma: a big buyer with a budget hole, a big producer of innovation, and a big exporter to the US. That is why it has "a target on its back".
- The MFN paradox: why MFN should push US prices down, and why it is really about US revenues.
- Something has to give: low prices, the latest drugs and more investment are not compatible in the short run.
- The UK deal: paying more for medicines in exchange for tariff relief and investment.
- No single European price: what a "NATO-style" agreement could look like instead.
- The hidden trade-offs: why the worst outcome is letting America decide what Europe pays.
- Health as an investment: why Europe can act as 27 nations, or as one bloc.
💡 Listen to this episode for a European economist's view of pharma's big picture today: which ways out Europe still has, and what each one will cost.
✍️ Ressources
Office of Health Economics (OHE) : https://www.ohe.org
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Chapters:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:40 Germany's trilemma: a target on its back
00:03:45 The MFN paradox: revenues, not prices
00:06:40 Low prices, fast access, strong industry: something has to give
00:10:05 The UK deal: paying more for access
00:11:45 A shared bargain for Europe, not a single price
00:16:13 One bloc or 27 nations? The hidden trade-offs
00:20:10 The worst outcome: decided by America
00:21:58 Fair prices and the right indicator
00:24:40 Health is an investment: key message and conclusion
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